The scale of projected African urbanisation is often stated and rarely operationalised. The relevant planning question is not how many people will arrive but where, at what density, and on what infrastructure.
Three trajectories
Unstructured peripheral expansion, the current default, consumes the most land, costs the most to service, and produces the longest commutes. It is also the path of least institutional resistance.
Structured intensification of existing serviced land is the cheapest per household and the hardest politically. Planned new settlement sits between the two, and is only viable where infrastructure and employment land are committed in advance.
Capacity, not plans
The binding constraint in most cities is not the absence of plans but the absence of institutional capacity to implement them. Frameworks that require sustained, high-capacity administration will not be implemented. Frameworks built from repeatable, low-complexity components can be.
What we are studying
Planform's ongoing research programme tracks these trajectories across selected metropolitan regions. Findings are published as they are peer reviewed.